Blackjack Odds & Probability Explained

Blackjack Odds vs. Blackjack House Edge?

Before we begin, let’s get one thing straight. Blackjack odds and Blackjack house edge ARE NOT THE SAME THING. They are closely related, but they aren’t the same thing.

Odds in Blackjack predict your chance of winning or busting based on your hand or the dealer’s face-up card.

The house edge predicts how much of an advantage the Casino has over you and how much you are expected to lose during each bet/overall. The house edge exists in all Bitcoin casino games, but Blackjack has the lowest house edge.

Naturally, the house edge is based on the odds, but it is merely there to give you an optimal approximation of how much of an advantage the casino has over you. If you want to know more about the house edge, read our guide on Blackjack House Edge.

For now, let’s talk about the odds.

What kind of odds do I have in Blackjack?

When you play blackjack, two odds matter the most: The odds of winning and the odds of busting if we take a hit.

The odds of winning Blackjack

Let’s cut to the chase.

• Your overall odds of winning a hand of Blackjack are: 42,22%
• The odds of the dealer winning a hand of Blackjack are: 49,10%
• The odds of a hand ending in a draw are: 8,48%

Many things can change the odds slightly, but this is what your odds will look like during most blackjack games, especially online ones. For example, Atlantic City Blackjack (an online casino game) has similar odds to the one we mentioned.

These odds assume that you understand the basic rules of playing blackjack, that you hit and stay according to the cheat sheet, and that you can double down and split your hand. They apply for winning a basic blackjack bet (without any side bets) with a blackjack payout of 3:2

The odds of the player busting at Blackjack

Now we are going to talk about the odds of busting. Busting in Blackjack means going over the limit (over 21), which means you lose automatically. Unlike the odds of winning, these are your odds of losing a hand if you take a hit. In other words, you don’t want this percentage to be high.

• Player Hand Value – 11 or lower – 0%
• Player Hand Value – 12 or lower – 31%
• Player Hand Value – 13 or lower – 39%
• Player Hand Value – 14 or lower – 56%
• Player Hand Value – 15 or lower – 58%
• Player Hand Value – 16 or lower – 62%
• Player Hand Value – 17 or lower – 69%
• Player Hand Value – 18 or lower – 77%
• Player Hand Value – 19 or lower – 85%
• Player Hand Value – 20 or lower – 92%
• Player Hand Value – 21 or lower – 100%

When the two of your cards are at a specific value, you should consider your odds before asking for another card.

The odds of the dealer busting at Blackjack

Just because our hand looks good doesn’t mean we will win. The dealer’s hand plays a pivotal role (not to mention that the dealer has the house edge), and it is in our interest to know which cards he/she might get. Here is the blackjack odds table for the dealer busting:

• Dealer’s up card – 2 – Bust rate: 35.30%
• Dealer’s up card – 3 – Bust rate: 37.56%
• Dealer’s up card – 4 – Bust rate: 40.28%
• Dealer’s up card – 5 – Bust rate: 42.87%
• Dealer’s up card – 6 – Bust rate: 42.08%
• Dealer’s up card – 7 – Bust rate: 25.99%
• Dealer’s up card – 8 – Bust rate: 23.86%
• Dealer’s up card – 9 – Bust rate: 23.34%
• Dealer’s up card – 10 – Bust rate: 21.43%
• Dealer’s up card – A – Bust rate: 11.65%

Again, don’t forget that some blackjack tables (especially if you play blackjack online) can improve blackjack house odds. So ensure you know the game’s rules before playing for real money. Most online casinos will let you play their games in demo mode without spending any money, so you should play a few games this way before playing for real.

Can you improve your odds of winning Blackjack?

Yes, you can! Here’s how:

You need to find the right blackjack table. This is easier said than done, unfortunately.

First, if you play blackjack online, you’re out of luck. Most online blackjack games follow the same rules, automatically shuffle cards after each hand, and many don’t let you surrender or allow many other rules.

Now, if you find a land-based casino that allows all of the things we mentioned above, your odds are already improved. Having the ability to surrender, having the dealer stay on a 17, and not having the cards shuffle after every deal dramatically improves your odds.

This brings us to the best and most controversial method of improving your odds: card counting.

Can you have better odds than the casino?

You actually can, but only at certain land-based casinos. You can do this by card counting. However, before you get too excited, know that it’s not possible in most casinos. Because most casinos don’t want you to reduce the house edge even further, they implement automatic card shufflers or simply have their dealers shuffle the cards after every game.

Card counting can only be done inside casinos that don’t shuffle cards after every hand and implement all the rules in the player’s favor. If you understand the game, know the most optimal way to play the cards you are dealt with, and know how to count cards, you can have an edge over the casino.

You can check out our card counting guide for a guide on how to count cards.

However, remember that card counting isn’t illegal; it can get you banned from the casino should you get caught. And seeing how it’s ultimately up to the casino to decide if you count cards, they can throw you out anytime.

If you’re itching to play, check out our list of selected online Bitcoin Blackjack sites! Pick your favorite and start playing today!

Should you play Blackjack?

Absolutely. Even without using the basic Blackjack strategy for playing optimally, this game is still delightful and lucrative because of the blackjack payouts. If you play your cards right (no pun intended), play responsibly, and don’t overspend, you’re looking at one of the best casino games. Just don’t forget that you won’t be able to use most of our tips and tricks if you are playing online blackjack.