The Republican Party has been given a 2-in-3 chance to regain control over both of the Congress’ chambers during the upcoming midterms that will be held next week. The odds have been offered by the Smarkets exchange, placing the Grand Old Party (GOP) in the leading position of favorites expected to take over the Senate.
51 to 49 Expected Tally
Smarkets’s freshest projection has shown an estimated final tally of 51 to 49 votes in favor of the Republicans. The Democrats have been left behind in the betting in all key races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. As for the House of Representatives, the freshest odds are now speaking about a probability of 90% for the GOP to win most of the seats there as well, as opposed to the odds of around 10% attributed to the Democrats for the House of Representatives.
Smarkets’s head of political markets Matthew Shaddick explained that while some forecasting models continue to give the Democrats at least 50% chances to win over the Senate, the betting markets are actually expecting the Republicans to outperform the polling numbers and come out with flying colors out of the heated battle. Politico considers the Republicans to be the big favorites for winning the House, whereas RealClearPolitics thinks the Republicans will take over the two chambers of the Senate. Both FiveThirtyEight and Politico consider which party would win over the Senate’s a toss-up. However, FiveThirtyEight is currently attributing the Democrats a small edge in obtaining control over the Senate’s two chambers.
The London-based betting company’s head of political markets also spoke about the “one-way traffic in our midterm markets”, mentioning the way the Republicans have moved up in the betting. Shaddick also explained that the key race held in Pennsylvania has “moved strongly” in the favor of the GOP following the debate between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman that took place last week. In July, Smarkets announced it would open its first US office in Washington DC.
69 Cents for a Share
PredictIt also rules in favor of the Republicans for winning over the Senate with 69 cents per share versus 34 cents per share for the Democrats. Winners of the wager will receive one dollar back for each share. As for the House of Representatives, the Republicans are also in the lead with 83 cents to win a dollar versus 11 cents to win a dollar for the Democrats.